Saturday, August 11, 2007

Political Fallout’s Mitt Romney Ames Straw Poll Predictions

Money can’t buy you “Big Love,” but it can buy you a formerly Iowa-GOP sponsored Straw Poll victory in Iowa. Given the amount of money and family members Romney has poured into this weekend’s Straw Poll in Ames, he should have naming rights for this year’s fundraising extravaganza: The Mitt Romney Ames Straw Poll (unless of course Marvin Pomerantz has anything to say aout it.)
Feeding off his sponsorship of this year's Ames Straw Poll fundraiser, Mitt Romney has already begun the merchandising component of his campaign's business plan. Romney unveiled the Mitt Romney bobble-head doll at the Iowa River and Power Company Wednesday in Iowa City.
Not to mention, Romney reportedly has chartered over 100 buses that he’s filled with prostituted voters (I say this with apprehension, given my mom is one of these alleged prostitutes…) and has paid for their trip, the $35 ticket, and food. Brownback has supposedly matched Romney with 100 chartered buses, while Huckabee failed to get on the bus early and was too late in chartering buses for the event. Meanwhile, rumor has it that Tancredo contracted the Texas Minutemen to ride up north and deliver voters to the Hilton Coliseum via horseback.

So predicting Romney will “win” the Straw Poll would be like predicting the well-financed Steinbrenner New York Yankees would win the ’98 World Series. Besides, with Romney’s commanding lead in the Iowa polls (followed closely by “I don’t know”), he has nothing to gain, much like the Iowa Hawkeye football team has nothing to gain by adding Western Michigan to the end of this year’s schedule.

That said, let’s look at the race for second:

Brownback and Huckabee are competing for the social conservative vote, and this may end up splitting the vote, but the nod goes to Brownback. After all, he claims to be God’s Senator, and the God-fearing Christian Right cannot risk taking any chances here voting against Brownback – you know, just in case it’s true. Call it spiritual insurance, if you -- or God will.

The Ron Paul Revolution should be in full force, but how much of this force will be qualified to vote in the Straw Poll remains to be seen. Paul could finish anywhere from second to last, but the safe bet is fourth, while the risk-takers (i.e. Ron Paul Revolutionaries) may gamble and bet on Paul to show.

Tancredo should be able to whip up the xenophobic crowd, which takes no pains to closet their spite against illegal immigrants. I didn’t realize illegal immigrants posed such a threat to Western Iowa, which is fairly depopulated and primarily farmland. I thought the point of leaving your family indefinitely and risking your life by crossing the border was to make more money – not less by stealing farmers’ jobs. Drawing from his fervent gun-show base, Tancredo should lead the second tier.

Tommy Thompson and Duncan Hunter have already packed their bags and booked their flights. Thompson said he would drop out if he didn’t finish first or second. Have a safe trip home, Tommy.

So here’s the final scorecard*:

1. Mitt Romney
2. Sam Brownback
3. Mike Huckabee
4. Ron Paul
5. Tom Tancredo
6. Tommy Thompson
7. Duncan Hunter

*Not including the non-participants, Giuliani and McCain, nor the White Knights of the GOP, who are sitting on the sidelines before they announce their intention to rescue the Republican Party (Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich).

More important, here are the real winner of this year’s Mitt Romney Ames Straw Poll:

1. The Iowa GOP – which stands to raise over a million dollars for their fundraiser

2. The Bus Charter Companies (including the out-of-state charter buses Brownback has pimped out to Iowa)

3. Ames – their numbers should do well against the State Fair in Des Moines
4. My Mom -- for scoring an all-expense paid trip to Ames on Romney's dime
5. The Ron Paul Revolution -- win or lose, these folks know how to have fun

37 comments:

Anonymous said...

Awesome post.

What if Ron Paul had poured the most money into Iowa? Would our media be all over that fact? Yep.

In Mitt Romney's case... nope.

I'm just sick.

bbartlog said...

Even fourth is a little ambitious for Ron Paul. Tommy Thompson has a ton of buses, and Giuliani has been trying to have his cake and eat it too by quietly campaigning in Iowa. I would guess
Romney
Brownback
Huckabee
Giuliani
Tommy Thompson
Paul
in that order as the top six. McCain, Hunter, Fred Thompson, and Cox will round out the bottom spots.

Anonymous said...

they could name it the wellmark blue cross blue shield straw poll...

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